ESPN and other top sources for your sports information has Adrian Peterson as the go to guy for the #1 spot on fantasy football draft kit lists. The man wearing #28 for the purple and gold has played just two years of pro football and has already jumped stars such as L.T, Steven Jackson, Peyton Manning, Frank Gore, Tom brady, and others. In fact, if the top 5 projections list was handed to an average fantasy football participant a few years back, they would say that they only knew one of the top options.
L.T. was the easy first choice in every fantasy draft last season and the one before that, and the one before that... This year? Looks like times have changed.
Adrian Peterson has taken over the top of the list
after showing dominance in the running game
last season. Is a guaranteed top performer for
fantasy owners in 2009-10?
Adrian Peterson: The third year running back for the Vikings is coming off a career season and is arguably one of the top running backs in this year's group of backs. But he has plenty of question marks that won't be answered until the season starts. So what makes this guy such a secure choice? It doesn't.
Michael Turner: After being overshadowed by Ladanian Tomlinson during his days in San Diego, Turner found a nice new home in Atlanta where he paired up with Rookie Quarterback Matt Ryan. Going with this guy as the second overall choice in the entire draft? He was good in 08, but will he prove that he can do it again. LT still seems like a better choice than Turner for the 09 season. Do I stand alone on this? I don't think so...
Maurice Jones-Drew: Without a doubt, one of the hardest working and humble athletes in the league. Plenty of spunk and will go out on the field with a mindset of not backing down from any linebacker or trenchman. Sharing time with Fred Taylor, he never really got a chance to be the go to back but his 08 season showed a lot of shine for the future Jaguars star running back. But #3 overall in the draft kit rankings? I'll have to take another look around the list of choices...
Matt Forte: Who? A guy that got little attention in his short time in the NFL has already risen to the elite of football athletes. Of course, he is still young and will get better in the upcoming seasons but I see him as more of second running back pick and not a first running back pick or even a first overall pick for a fantasy team. Is ESPN trying to pull a terrible joke on fantasy football guru's?
Matt Forte was
just another name
in the free agent
pool for most
fantasy leagues
less than 36 months
ago. Fast forward
a little bit and you've
got the Chicago
Bear sitting at #4
in ESPN's "great"
list. Could he be the
catalyst for YOUR
fantasy team?
Steven Jackson: At #5, Jackson may have the biggest name in the top 5. Maybe AP has him by a slight edge but Steven Jackson is one of the toughest combo backs in the league and could do plenty of damage on the turf. It's just that his team won't cooperate. No bias here, but Jackson looks like a better pick than Forte, Jones-Drew, and Turner. Maybe I've just completely missed out on th football world during this off season.
You've got big names like LT, Clinton Portis, Frank Gore, Larry Johnson, Brandon Jacobs, Marion Barber, Brian Westbrook, and Willie Parker, and not a single one of these guys are in the mix for the top pick in the ESPN fantasy draft. So maybe a few of these guys lost a step or two, maybe an injury has changed their style of effectiveness on the field , or the roster changes has negated the runners former dominance that was once present. Still, to an average football follower, the top list of running backs just seems like a joke. With the most important position on any fantasy football team, running backs will be the decision of whether your team looks like a playoff team or not. I guess the pool is just that much deeper this season. Willie Parker as the #25 running back in the rankings? Larry Johnson at 26 (due to some injury trouble, he's been nonexistent at times but #26?) You've just got to think that someone like Willie at #25 in just the running backs or even Brian Westbrook at #14 is a complete steal. You've got to keep in mind that some foolish fantasy managers will pick up a wide receiver or quarterback in that crucial first round of your draft.
As of right now, I'd say it's a toss up throughout the entire first round with the running backs. Depending on who you pick, if that running back is healthy and play consistently, the possibility of riding on that players back to lead your fantasy team to championship contention should be nice. If whoever you picked in the first round unluckily has to deal with injuries or split time on the field with another back, you may have to hope for a lower round pick to explode and have a career season in order for contention. Fantasy football is 35% skill, 65% luck. It definitely takes some skill to pick and arrange the players that you snag from the draft pool, but injuries and playing time can't exactly be predicted. When it's your turn in the draft, I recommend some tarot cards. Does it even work that way? "Flying Squirrels all the way"!
The most important position in 99.9% of fantasyfootball teams is the running back spot. Apparently,
you don't need a "good" running back to make it to
the Super Bowl nowadays. (Edgerrin James , on the left, #60
on ESPN's list of top running backs, Willie Parker, on the right, #25)
-Jason C
FINALLY A FANTASY FOOTBALL ENTRY!!!
ReplyDeleteI will say though that there is a typo.... for Matt Forte you said he was just another name in the free agent pool 36 months ago....
I will agree that you don't have to pick by the ratings set by ESPN, but what makes a pick a bad pick is whether or not you could have gotten him later. With that said, LT, Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson, Brandon Jacobs, Brian Westbrook, and Willie Parker would be bad first round picks because you could probably get them in the second or third rounds. Although I wouldn't want Barber, Barber and Gore would probably go in the first round so that would be ok.
I will say though that I don't agree with your assessment on the top backs. Peterson, Forte, Jones-Drew, and Turner are considered the top four due to consistency, injury risk, and risk of platoon situations. Although Peterson and Turner have Taylor and Norwood, they are undoubtedly the featured backs. Personally I like Turner at the top, with Forte a close second. They have no wear-and-tear, they won't see any more eight-man fronts, and they have good tight ends(Forte has 2). In terms of Forte, he literally has no weaknesses, he can block and he stays in during passing downs.
Although Jones-Drew will probably do well, I just can't trust him for some reason, don't really know why. Peterson is probably the most talented, but he fumbles the ball too much for me and he gets burned out at the end of the season.
Steven Jackson as no. 1? He's missed 4 games in each of the past two years because of injury and they'll probably have to stop running late in games because their defense sucks. I agree he's a freakin beast, but until he can stay healthy and is on a more balanced team, I wouldn't pick him that high.
I agree that LT is going to be drafted way too low, but Willie Parker and Larry Johnson are actually ranked too high in my opinion. Parker has injury problems, a young rb stealing carries, and has trouble scoring touchdowns. Johnson is an injury risk, has Jamaal Charles creeping up, a horrible defense, and has been trying to get out of Kansas City for the past couple of years.
1st round pick is all about consistency and although you can never tell, the top four seem to be the safest, if not the best picks.
Just for fun:
1. Michael Turner
2. Matt Forte
3. Adrian Peterson ( I wouldn't want a Viking anyway)
4. Jones-Drew
5. Frank Gore
6. Steven Jackson
7. LT
8. Clinton Portis
9. Brian Westbrook
10. Chris Johnson/Steve Slaton