Why the Lakers will make the finals this year: Kobe Bryant. He is a fighter, a leader, a downright assassin, and he has just the right artillery to work with this season. As long as he and his team is healthy, don't expect any of the Western teams to really get in their way. Ariza, Radmanovic, and Walton will have to make some big time plays in order for the Lakers to stay on top during the playoffs. Look for those three to be the x-factors. They might not all play in every game but they will each get plenty of opportunities on the hardwood throughout each round. Expect the Zen Master to rotate them in and out with different starting lineups.
Why the Cavaliers will make the finals this year: The King. Did I say Kobe was a fighter? LeBron is a straight up animal. What the King wants is what the King gets. And this year, I think he wants to make it to the finals, and then some. The guard play in Delonte West, Mo Williams, and Booby will be key as their shooting percentage will be the deciding factor of how opposing defenses will handle James and crew. Big Z will need to be healthy and Varejao (I really wish he would just shave his head) will have to continue to step it up.
Why the Lakers won't make the finals this year: Kobe forgets his shoes at home or the defense just decides not to show up like it did earlier this season. Anyone remember when that happened? It wasn't pretty. If Sasha takes over 30 shots in any of the series', we got a problem. Someone needs to tell him that he doesn't need to shoot everytime he touches the ball. If Andrew Bynum or Pau goes down with an injury, LA will be in trouble.
Why the Cavaliers won't make the finals this year: LeBron doesn't drop 30 a game. The Chosen One will need to average something like 30 7 and 7 in order for his team to be successful. The guards can't have trouble early, trying to find the basket. If that is the case, defenses will be able to focus more on LeBron and that will cause havoc for the Cleveland coaching staff. LeBron will need to stay out of foul trouble or else they will have problems trying to score while LeBron helplessly watches from the side. Big Z will have to stay healthy. If injury strikes his old body in the playoffs, a quick recovery won't be likely and the Cavs will be playing with a much smaller team against opponents with big men like Dwight, KG, Sheed, and the young man from the Dominican Republic. In the long run, it's honestly all up to LeBron. The man can do miracles.
Now that I've done a breakdown of the top team from each conference, let's see what the brackets would look like if the playoffs started tomorrow.
EAST
1. Cleveland
2. Orlando
3. Boston
4. Detroit
5. Atlanta
6. Miami
7. New Jersey
8. Milwaukee
WEST
1. Los Angeles Lakers
2. San Antonio
3. Denver
4. New Orleans
5. Houston
6. Phoenix
7. Portland
8. Utah
Dallas just missed it by a millimeter.
So here's my outlook. You all probably saw my sorry prediction of the Chargers beating the Steelers so don't expect an expert analysis on this. And when the real playoff bracket comes out, I'll do another prediction but here it goes for now.
#1 Cleveland over #8 Milwaukee in 5. Jefferson pours 40 one night and gets one for the win column as Milwaukee's playoff journey ends quick.
#2 Orlando over #7 New Jersey in 6. Vince keeps his team in the battle but the young Brook Lopez just can't contain Big Dwight.
#3 Boston over #6 Miami in 5. Miami is just too young and DWade and Marion just don't have what it takes to keep up with the defending champs.
#5 Atlanta over #4 Detroit in 5. Detroit may be the higher ranking but Iverson doesn't really fit well with this program and as one of the key players, The Hawks take advantage of this achilles heel and stuns the Pistons quick and easy. The young Hawks are easily motivated and by winning their first playoff series' in over a decade, the Hawks are more confident than ever.
#1 Los Angeles over #8 Utah in 7. Phil and his Lakers get a scare but barely pull away from the first round as Kobe leads the way.
#7 Portland over #2 San Antonio in 6. San Antonio gains an early 2-0 lead but the Blazers hang in and fight as fatigue hits the old aged Spurs and it costs them four straight games and the series.
#6 Phoenix over #3 Denver in 6. Chauncy is a new fan favorite in Colorado but he and Carmelo just don't have enough to contain Amare and Shaq down low as the speedy Suns take care of business and end the series in game six at home.
#5 Houston over #4 New Orleans in 6. I really wanted to go with the Hornets in this one but you got to be cheering for T-Mac and his Rockets in this one as he has yet to make it out of the first round. This will be the year whether it's against the Hornets or whoever else. #1 in red steps up big in the playoffs and takes his team to the next level... The second round...
#1 Cleveland over #5 Atlanta in 6. The Hawks have all the momentum in the world but the Cav's track record at home is just too impressive. Cleveland wins all three home games and game 6 in Atlanta as Joe Johnson and company just don't have enough to stop LeBron.
#3 Boston over #2 Orlando in 5. The Magic just don't match up well with the Celtics in this one and Big Dwight can't do enough as Hedo and Shard just can't come up with enough to throw at the Celtic defense. Rondo takes care of Nelson like Barack over McCain. Was that politically incorrect? Shame on me.
#1 Los Angeles over #5 Houston in 5. The Lakers realize that the first round was a huge wake up call and T-Mac is still overjoyed and overwhelmed with finally getting passed that first round. Wake up man, Kobe's got the ball right now and you're supposed to be guarding him.
#6 Phoenix over #7 Portland in 6. Phoenix jumps on top early and, unlike the Spurs, are able to finish with a much younger squad. The Blazers are far too inexperienced to overcome this deficit and head to their locker room as they prepare for 2009-10.
#3 Boston over #1 Cleveland in 6. Some of you are probably looking at this and thinking, "are you out of your mind?" No, actually, I think I'll go with Boston on this one. Cleveland will win game one and have everythng going their way but KG and the rest of the Big FOUR will tie it and take the lead in the next two games. Boston will take over home court advantage and end LeBrons season in game six in the garden as the King realizes he just can't do it in Cleveland. Time to bounce.
#1 Los Angeles over #6 Phoenix in 6. When do these two teams ever meet without putting on a show. Either the game is real close, there's a fight, or it's just right out heated. That's what a Conference Finals should be like. Shaq will teach Bynum what a real once league dominating big man is capable of doing but the age in Kazaam's legs won't be able to take a full series in the third round as the big men of LA just out power Amare.
You got it. I'm predicting a rematch of last years finals. What's going to be the difference maker this year? Let's do a little math. Lakers+Andrew Bynum > Celtics-Posey. Not only are the Celtics without Posey this year, they will truly understand how important a veteran like PJ Brown can be. You're thinking, "alright, so they don't have two role playing veterans, but how can you forget the presence of KG, and #34 and Jesus Shuttlesworth's scoring abilities?" If this match-up does end up happening this year, you will see how much of a difference Posey makes. Just go back and watch some film from the previous finals. Look for #41 in white and green. He's the one wearing the tube socks. Last year was Boston in 6? I say this year, Kobe will hold up the finals MVP trophy and earn his fourth ring as a Laker as Los Angeles wins it in Boston in game six and gets booed off the court by objects being violently thrown through the air. Ahh, don't you just love the atmosphere in the garden?
-Jason Chong
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